November 11, 2011

What the theory predicts...

On Balance, a Republican Election Cycle - By John Hood - The Corner - National Review Online:

...With the addition of Mississippi and Virginia, there are now 27 fully Republican legislatures, 15 Democratic ones, and seven splits. The last time the GOP had this much legislative power in state capitals, most motion pictures were still being produced without sound.

On balance, while some high-profile conservative initiatives and political leaders were defeated, voters pushed American politics a bit more to the right this year. I wouldn’t oversell the point – some of those legislative victories were extremely narrow, for example, and local elections went against conservatives in some places – but the MSNBC/DNC spin on Election Day 2011 is rather silly....

That is to say, "The last time the GOP had this much legislative power in state capitals" was the 1920's. This fits the theory of the 70-Year Cycle very well, with the previous—Democrat— cycle starting about 1930. Dems will continue to have some good years, like 2008, but the overall trend will be running against them until (very roughly) 2030, and a real clear turn in their favor not until we are approaching 2070.

And of course they will be a very different party then.

Posted by John Weidner at November 11, 2011 7:47 AM

Perhaps the optimism should be muted. What's the culture going to be like? Politicians usually follow the culture. I'd rather have a Democrat submitting to conservative culture than a Republican submitting to liberal culture.

Posted by: David at November 11, 2011 2:55 PM

Well actually, my optimism is muted. didn't say that the results of Republican dominance will be good. I tend to think they will be beneficial, or at least better than Democrat rule, but I've been disappointed by the party many many times.

You are right that they follow the culture. We can see that in the way the Tea Parties are pushing the Republican Party in directions I find hopeful. But whether that will last?

Posted by: John Weidner at November 12, 2011 11:09 AM
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