November 1, 2010

It fits the 70-Year Cycle theory perfectly...

Election 2010: A correction, not a revolution | Washington Examiner:

...So the GOP could easily gain 60 seats in this election without making any incursions onto Democratic turf.

This math should dampen the triumphant Republican talk, but it should also worry the Democrats.

The bad news for Republicans: This election isn't really redrawing the map, and it doesn't represent a fierce reaction against the Democrats. Instead, the country is returning to where it was politically before the Republicans threw away their majority in 2006 and 2008 through overspending, two wars, and rampant corruption.

The bad news for Democrats: This suggests that America really is a Republican country, with 2006 and 2008 as aberrations. It appears that the Democrats are a narrow regional party, contrary to the post-2008 conventional wisdom they had become the dominant national party....

I'm writing this post mostly for my own satisfaction; I doubt anyone else cares. But I blogged about the 70-year cycle of party dominance for a while, and then I shut up as things moved Dem-ward in 2005 or so. But that movement is looking increasingly like an aberration, as the article agrees.

The theory says that America became a Republican country starting about the year 2000. (From 1860 Republicans were dominant, and then the Dems starting about 1930.) Each cycle is about two political generations. The 70 years before 1860 don't have today's parties, but they fit otherwise, with the Revolutionary generation and then a follow-on generation stuck in old habits of thought. And then a problem that needed a new political alignment to solve.

Here's a bit I wrote in a post back in 2004...

...The book [The Nemesis of Reform] is about how the Republicans reacted to the realignment that made the Democrats the majority party in the 1930's, after Republican dominance since the Civil War. I probably won't find time to write about the book in any way that does it justice. But I've encountered a number of interesting items that seem to parallel things that are happening now.

One is that the Republicans reacted to the move leftward of the country and the Dems by moving further right! The polarization of politics increased. This was disastrous for the Republicans electorally. It seems to have happened because the most energetic Republican interest groups were those who felt most threatened by the New Deal. The energy of the party was in the "antis." And because many centrist or Progressive Republicans were supporting Roosevelt...

Well, we can see that happening again! I'm more and more thinking that the real problem to be solved in this cycle is moving government into the Information Age. And that is a deadly threat to the core of the Dem Party, who have become suicidally angry and crazy. Thereby alienating many moderate Dems, and boosting the Republicans.

Posted by John Weidner at November 1, 2010 6:28 PM
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