May 18, 2010

Amazing scientific shenanigans...



by Barry Brill at Climate Realists, Crisis in New Zealand Climatology:

...The New Zealand Meteorological Service, with its forebears, has been measuring and recording our weather since 1861. In 1992, it published a booklet containing a detailed history of all its weather stations, along with 140 years of climate data. In that year, NIWA [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research] came into being and has now published most of the Met Service data online.

In 2007, the then Prime Minister announced her party's intention that New Zealand should lead the world in fighting climate change, and aim to be the world's first carbon-neutral country by 2025.

Earlier in 2007, NIWA produced a web page, followed by a printed brochure, with a graph showing that New Zealand had already warmed by an amount far in excess of global averages. The web page claimed a temperature increase of 1.1C during the 144 years of Met Service records, and a 0.92°C trend during the 20th century.

These are remarkable claims. They came out of the blue and do not accord with any written histories, or the personal impressions of our older generations. They don't square with "hottest day" records held in provinces and city archives. They were not accompanied by big changes in rainfall or winds or sea levels. In these claims, NIWA is a very lonely orphan.

Global warming during the 20th Century was 0.6C, with a margin of error of +/-0.2C. The Southern Hemisphere warming was less than half that level. But New Zealand warming, according to NIWA, was almost twice the global average - and with no error margins mentioned.

Referring to the NIWA web page, one finds that this major warming trend is the product of a single study involving only 7 temperature stations - out of the 238 stations which currently report to NIWA. [This is the "NIWA Seven-station Series" or NSS.] In response to a request under the Official information Act, NIWA has disclosed that this study was undertaken as part of a student's thesis some 30 years ago.

NIWA has no record of how the NSS came to be in their computers. The only reasonable inference is that the student himself, one Jim Salinger, must have added it when he became NIWA's Principal Scientist many years later.

How do we know the NSS is wrong? ...

[My emphasis] Well, read the whole thing if you are interested. What is especially odd here, to me at least, is that the science was being fudged 30 years ago. Deep-laid plans, eh?

Posted by John Weidner at May 18, 2010 1:40 PM
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