August 12, 2008
Boring is good...
....But here's a quick note on all that's happening in Iraq concerning the Provincial Elections Law, the Oil Law, and Kirkuk: the question that everyone should be asking is "Will this political turmoil lead to violence?" and answer is that the potential for increased violence is minimal.
It's politics, folks. Why should Americans involve themselves in the nitty-gritty details of Iraqi politics? It is all being sorted out in heated bargaining and deal-making. Should Iraqis concern themselves with the pork-barreling and congressional re-districting of the U.S. Congress? No, they shouldn't.
The Iraq story is getting boring, and that's a good thing. The 'analysts' and 'experts' who staked their reputations on the idea that Iraq is a failed state are feverishly hoping that the embers of violence would catch fire anew so that a certain presidential candidate may win and they'd get to keep their fake status of self-styled 'expertise'. My own reading of the situation is that is futile to go delving into the ashes of a failed insurgency that hasn't got the wherewithal to burst aflame again....
It's hardly more than hunch, but I've had a certain confidence in the Iraqis since we started getting educated about them back in 2002. A confidence I certainly don't feel about certain other Arab Middle East nations and groups. Bloggers pass around stories, and the stories about Iraqis are often like meeting people one would like to know. My bet is that the Iraqis will keep their democracy, although it will be a rough-edged thing.
I worry however about Iraq having so much oil. That seems to be a curse on nations. When the government gets a lot of it's income from selling oil or other natural resources, it doesn't have much reason to encourage its people to be the sort of free and enterprising population that creates real wealth, and thus yields tax revenues. It doesn't need to serve the people, so as to dispose them to be willing to pay taxes. To some extant, it doesn't need the people at all, and can hurt them with impunity. A temptation few politicians can resist over the long run...
My advice to Iraq might be to give its oil profits directly to the people, and then support the government by taxing them.
Posted by John Weidner at August 12, 2008 09:54 AMjohn, I saw your blog on the soapstone counter top and would like to know if you remember the name of the black epoxy you used? I would appreciate any info. thanks patrick
Posted by: patrick at August 12, 2008 07:51 PMAs American Ally that actually contributed troops in Iraq is invaded, American President watches Olympics.
As Derbyshire of National Review writes, you are governed by fools.
(BTW we are much worse, bring governed by crooks).
Patrick,
It was called Akemi Marmorkitt 1000S black.
From Key Stone Tools, 800-969-0661 (Good company, sells lots of stone-working stuff via catalog and some retail shops. No web site.)
It hardens fairly quickly, so be ready.
Posted by: John Weidner at August 13, 2008 06:48 AMBisaal,
One might well criticize Bush's reaction to the crisis, but his being at the Olympics is neither here nor there. The President has the same communications available wherever he goes.
And making a hasty departure from Beijing would make him look flustered. That would not be good, especially since this seems like a situation where we can't DO anything except by diplomatic pressure. In a situation where you can't act, it is best to at least pretend you are feeling calm and deliberative, and confident that things can be worked out.
Also you don't insult the Chinese when you have a problem with Russia! Quite possibly Bush was getting Chinese help in return for not leaving. And also it is probable that his attendance at the games was a bribe to get Chinese help in dealing with North Korea. That's still very important.
Posted by: John Weidner at August 13, 2008 07:03 AMWell, we could act...we could put a no-fly zone over Georgia and sink any hostile ship afloat in the Black Sea, without batting an eye or putting a single boot on the ground, or even stretching our forces. It is more fun to see little Georgia popping Russian planes out of the sky, but we'd be better at it. I understand there are many, many reasons not to do that - and I agree with those reasons - but still, we aren't impotent here - we're simply choosing discretion for the time being...
Posted by: Ethan Hahn at August 13, 2008 08:13 PM
