July 15, 2008
Pretty darn strange recession we're having....
Trade Data Boost Second Quarter GDP EstimatesPosted by John Weidner at July 15, 2008 5:46 PM
Today’s data on May international trade prompted several economists to boost their tracking estimates of second quarter GDP growth. Macroeconomic Advisers boosted its estimate to 3.3% (annual rate) from 3% as did HSBC. Morgan Stanley raised its estimate to 3.9% from 3.8%. GDP grew just 0.7% in the first quarter.
Although the trade deficit rose to $60 billion in May, as expected, from $58.5 billion in April, the real trade deficit — which adjusts for changes in prices and is what affects real GDP, was flat. That suggests the real deficit will be narrower in the second quarter from the first, implying a significant contribution to second quarter growth after subtracting from it in the first.
