January 23, 2006

Every option BAD...

Colonel Jerry, USMC comments on the Iranian situation at ChicagoBoyz:

...This is an incredibly complex issue wherein all proposed courses of action (which are all over the board...) seem to lead to varying definitions of: BAD, REALLY BAD or REALLY REALLY BAD!

This colonel is a Huge Fan of Tom Barnett; a master strategist. But it is not an impossibility that some wingnut in the gap will not wait for A to Z (South Carolina comes to mind as precursor to Civil War).

I take Amhedinejad at his word. Israel must be rubbed out and the corollery is that nukes are the only means. Rational men cannot impose a MAD deterrence against a MAD man; won`t work.

The trouble with a Madhi is in his blindness to any consequence of a Jihad!

Israel`s second strike capacity is kinda moot if there is no Israel anymore.

IMHO, waiting for internal Iranian reform is utopian; ain`t gonna happen. Additionally, I do not believe anyone knows the timeline to an Iranian operational nuclear weapon.

In sum: Iran is mountainous, full of hardened underground sites. Surgical anything is out. Conventional would be bad/really bad. Nuclear would be really really bad. Doing nothing would also be really really bad.

Take your pick...................

I'd say he's got it right. In addition, nuclear facilities have been built underneath Iranian cities, which probably rules even pinpoint strikes out. A blockade is probably the best option; the regime would not last long without oil exports. But it is also perilous, as a glimpse at the map will show.

Any such action should be done as a united show of resolution and force by all the major free world nations. But most of them (along with a significant minority in the US) have been deeply corrupted by socialism and pacifism, and so have become incapable of showing resolution on ANYTHING. So this is unlikely to be an option.

Pacifism kills. (Either real pacifism, which is pretty much extinct, or leftism-pretending-to-be-pacifism, which is what we see now.) Both of them amount to "let the foreigners die, as long as I don't have to make difficult choices or fight evil or defend freedom."

Posted by John Weidner at January 23, 2006 8:32 AM
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