June 26, 2005

Ah so. So sorry. We lose it in the mud near Guangzhou...

Glenn writes, concerning fears that China will attack Taiwan soon:

Perhaps we can kill two birds with one stone by floating a rumor that Taiwan is acquiring nuclear weapons from North Korea...

I like that! But China's 10% growth (even if the statistics are reliable) is based on trade. Most of it sea-borne. Taiwan should just let the world know that it has some sophisticated new sea mines. Maybe announce that they've "lost" one near the Chinese coast. And that it's not dangerous until "armed." In which case it will lie concealed on the sea bed ready to sink a ship at some random moment in the next few years.

Let the world's marine insurance industry chew on that a bit...

* Update:. My guess is that China is trying to "Finlandize" the region. That they are too far into "the Core" to seriously contemplate aggressive war. They import their oil! And we are living in a age of ship-killer missiles and torpedos that don't miss. One shot, one supertanker.

But what's interesting is that China's position is much stronger because we are not sure they are sane. And Taiwan's is much weaker because we are sure they are not insane. This is similar to the point I've been repeating a tedious number of times; that America is in a much stronger position to promote peaceful change precisely because various regimes are no longer sure that we might not pick them off just because Donald Rumsfeld is feeling bored and wants to kill something. Thank you, lefty kooks, for enhancing our bargaining position!

Posted by John Weidner at June 26, 2005 11:59 AM
Weblog by John Weidner