March 11, 2005

Ratchets...

Through all my adult life, conservatives like me have been depressed and frustrated by what seemed an insoluble dilemma. Every time Congress voted some favor or boon or subsidy or welfare payment to some group, they instantly became a constituency that would fight tenaciously to maintain that bit of pork, and would therefore tend to favor politicians who believed in big-government largess. It seemed like a ratchet that could only produce ever larger government and an ever more dependent population and a permanently entrenched Democrat party.

As an example, I used to be a bookseller, and well remember how publishers and the American Booksellers Association had a hair-trigger reaction to any proposed change to the special postal rates for books. I too benefitted from this, and might, even though I believed in smaller government, have hesitated to see this special rate abolished.

BUT, this kind of thing can work both ways. Jonathan Chait has a lefty screed on the evils of Social Security reform, and in it is this interesting item:

...As conservatives well understand, once a group of voters has been given a property right by Washington, they will never allow it to be taken away. The individual rights will be a ratchet, one that can be expanded but never contracted. The pressure for expansion would be especially strong during extended bull market runs, such as during the late '90s, when the public (and even some economists) tends to delude itself into thinking that stocks will rise forever. This is why conservatives are so insistent upon establishing individual accounts. They have uncharacteristically volunteered compromises--even offering to violate their theological opposition to tax hikes--in order to insert their opening wedge. Privatizers understand full well that any concessions they make can be legislated away in the future, while private accounts cannot...

Ha ha. The insidious creeping evil of private property!

(Thanks to Rich Lowry, whose point was that Chait is admitting that Dems oppose SS reform because people would like it!)

One Democrat talking point I noticed that should be refuted, is that private accounts would be disastrous for those who are retiring just as the market happens to go down. First, you should have pulled gradually out of the market as you approached retirement age. That's basic, and would probably be required in SS accounts. But even if not, all you have to do is work a few more years! The market will go back up. We're not a bunch of Frenchmen who shrivel up and die if forced to work past their 65th birthday.

Posted by John Weidner at March 11, 2005 04:56 PM
Comments

To restate from Paul O'Neill:
If you save $1000 a year starting at age 20 for 45 years at 9% compounded, you will have $650,000 at age 65.

At 10.5%, you'll have $1,100,000.
If the stock market gets cut in half just as you retire at age 65, your account will drop to "only" half a million dollars. And if the market tanks this bad, the whole economy is going to hell--including the SS tax collections that the government would be collecting to pay you.

The long-term average gain from S&P500 is 10.5%.

FWIW, the current max annual SS tax is $5450 (times 2).

Posted by: ray at March 11, 2005 07:26 PM

Ray, and John, too:

You guys misunderstand the situation with respect to stock prices. It DOESN'T MATTER what the prices of the stocks in your investment portfolio are on the day, in the month or even year of your retirement.

Why? Because you're not going to be selling them (or, at least, selling them only in a pinch) because the whole point of the exercise is to accumulate enough stock so that you can live off the dividend income.

Besides, if you sell the stock, you won't have anything left to pass on to your children.

Another point: stock-price declines are not a bug, they're a FEATURE. When stock prices go down, Wall Street is having a clearance sale: "Healthy, big-name corporations, now at drastically reduced prices! IBM, now 20% off! GM, now 22% off! Come and get them while the deals are hot! Everything must go!!!" After all, the point is not to spend money on acquiring shares of companies, per se. The point is to acquire those shares at the lowest price reasonably possible. So, stock-market dips are your friends, guys.

Posted by: Hale Adams at March 12, 2005 09:46 AM
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