January 20, 2005

I think both are wrong...

PowerLine quotes in interesting article by Professor Andrew Busch, Rolling Realignment.

Will 2004 be for Republicans what 1964 was for Democrats, a moment of triumph followed by a season of loss? Or will 2004 be, as Karl Rove has argued, another 1900, a close but broad victory that lays the foundation for a generation of dominance? Everything will depend on the choices Republicans make, the choices Democrats make, and the events that both will have to confront. If history is any guide, for Republicans hubris will be a more dangerous adversary than Harry Reid.

Both are wrong, or so I would argue. The theory of 70-Year Cycles would say that both of these are just the ups and downs that happen within the broader cycle of realignments. What was the 60's? It was the time when the men of the New Deal generation were replaced by their children, who had never known real electoral defeat, and so were tempted into a classic example of over-reaching. It was a part of the larger realignment. 2004 is similar to the 1930's. We can expect our moment of hubris to come in the 2030's.

Posted by John Weidner at January 20, 2005 10:52 AM | TrackBack
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