July 27, 2004
How many Protons in the universe?
I liked James Taranto's article, No Republican has won the White House without Ohio. So what? He points out that there are a huge number of long-term trends that last until...they end.
... Mr. Bush was the first Republican since James Garfield in 1880 to win the White House without carrying California. That record would not have fallen had Al Gore received a few thousand more votes in Florida--but in that case, Mr. Gore would have become the first Democrat ever elected without carrying Missouri...I suspect that the number of trends one could construct is mathematically something similar to the the number of possible chess games...more than there are protons in the universe or some such large number. Posted by John Weidner at July 27, 2004 07:40 AM | TrackBack... In the process, George W. Bush became the first Republican to win the presidency without carrying Delaware since Benjamin Harrison in 1888. Mr. Bush was also the first president since Harrison to win election without a popular-vote plurality.
Perhaps it augurs well for John Kerry that neither Harrison nor the two earlier "minority" presidents, John Quincy Adams and Rutherford Hayes, won re-election (though Hayes didn't run). But in order to keep that streak going, Mr. Kerry would have to become the first president since Lincoln to win in November after being nominated at a convention in his home state.
He also would need to win the White House as a sitting member of Congress, something only three men have done: Rep. Garfield in 1880, Sen. Warren G. Harding in 1920 and Sen. John F. Kennedy in 1960. And here's a streak that might give Mr. Kerry pause: All three died in office....
Another trend that goes against Kerry's chances is hinted at by Taranto but not specifically mentioned. Of the five challengers that beat incumbents in the 20th century (Wilson, FDR, Carter, Reagan, & Clinton), the incumbent in every case but one also had to contend with a strong primary challenge, a third party candidate splitting his constituency, or both. The exception being FDR's victory over Hoover. So, I suppose if one believes that there's some comparison between early 1930s Hoover America and today, Kerry might have a shot.
Posted by: Lance Jonn Romanoff at July 27, 2004 04:45 PMI myself think that the situation is VERY similar to the 1930's. Only Kerry looks like Alf Landon.. And guess who's FDR?
Posted by: John Weidner at July 27, 2004 09:07 PMNo telling what might happen if Steven Den Beste or Jay Manifold (A Voyage to Arcturus) get hold of this idea. They might actually start working the numbers...
Posted by: Alan Sullivan at July 28, 2004 03:29 AM
